The Kabul Times.
Politics

Will US remain in Afghanistan if negotiation fails?

By: Shukria Kohistani

The new round of talks would begin between Taliban and ambassador Khalilzad.
In his recent interview in Kabul, ambassador Khalilzad has said that complicated issues have been occurred in the world, war got longer.
The US presidential elections is in the way. So, necessary hurry should be existed for Political solution of war in Afghanistan.
It is possible that Taliban and their foreign supporters understood that if they give concession or not, in any way the US withdraws its troops from Afghanistan.
It is considered that among Taliban and their domestic and foreign supporters, this belief gets momentum that even in negotiating table, Taliban doesn’t give concession to the US, and say “no” to the silence of guns and also don’t enter into meaningful dialogue with political forces and government of Afghanistan in such a condition, the NATO forces which are present in Afghanistan would be exited.
They comment the political assertion of Khalilzad like this that in any way, the US withdraws its troops from Afghanistan.
When Taliban and their foreign supporters to have such believe that in anyway, the US withdraws its troops from Afghanistan, they don’t give concession.
When an insurgent force to reach to this believe that their opponents must withdraw, it is no logic to give concession.
They would give concessions in a time that if the negotiation not to reach into a clear and logic results, the US troops remain in Afghanistan and continue their support from security forces of this country.
Now, based on the defeat of super powers idea the leaders and supporters of Taliban have reached into this believe that like former Soviet Union, the US also defeated in Afghanistan and the Qatar negotiations aim to prepare the ground for withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
There is no doubt, the NATO forces failed to halt the Taliban insurgency.
This caused by the support of Pakistan from Taliban insurgents as well as not isolation of Taliban from the rural areas in southern region.
To halt an gurilla and insurgency force, it is necessary the foreign support from these forces to be ended, if any local support to be cut from insurgents, the NATO and government of Afghanistan didn’t end the support of Pakistan from Taliban.
Inside of the country, either the government, or NATO forces, or as a whole, the political forces and civil society didn’t intruded into remote villages of southern regions and even some southern villages close to Kabul.
The government and NATO failed to enter into mental world of villagers in some villages in the south and east and bear the tradition of rehabilitation and new Afghanistan to them and Taliban strategically benefited from it.
But, this doesn’t means that Taliban conquer all fiefdom of Afghanistan.
Beginning from 2014, 90 percent NATO forces withdrew from Afghanistan. Despite losing some parts of areas in south and north, the government continued to its existence.
The domestic and foreign politicians believe that with the withdrawal of remaining NATO forces from Afghanistan, the former continues its financial support from Afghanistan that guarantees the remaining of Afghanistan government in power. But this issue doesn’t exist in Talibans strategic calculation.
If the US leaves Afghanistan sans any reasonable political solution, the predict of Bin-e-Laden would be realized and this would cause psychological success for al-Qaida and finally, anti-US Pan-jehadism would succeed.
Another reality is this that now, the US is not in a bad economic, military position.
Since 2014 to date, the US casualties reduced considerably in Afghanistan. They are not in battlefield of war on terror.
They have supportive and consultative role. The economy of the US is more stronger. If its existence continue in Afghanistan, it is not intolerable for it. There is no anti-movement in the US for its support from Afghanistan and also the public opinion of the world is not against the support of Washington from Kabul.

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The Kabul Times.