While we do not have idea the economically damages of novel corona viruses pandemic will be, there is widespread agreements among economic scholars that it will have severe negative impacts on the global economy.
Latest estimations shows that, the virus become a global pandemic, most major economies will lose at least 2.4 % of the value their gross domestic product over 2020, leading economists to already reduce their 2020 forecasts of global economic growth down from around 3.0 % to 2.4 %.
To put this number in perspective, global GDP was estimated at around 86.6 trillion U.S. currency in 2019 – meaning that just a 0.4 % drop in economic growth amounts to almost 3.5 trillion U.S. currency in lost economic output. However, these predictions were made prior to COVID-19 becoming a global pandemic, and before the implementation of break-out restrictions on social contact to stop the spread of the virus.
Since then, global stock markets have suffered dramatic falls due to the outbreak, and the Dow Jones reported its largest-ever single day fall of almost 3,000 points on March 16, 2020 – beating its previous record of 2,300 points that was set only four-days earlier.
FORECASTED GLOBAL GDP DUE TO COVID-19 IN 2020 is 2.4%. MONETARY GDP LOSS IN BEST CASE COVID-19 SCENARIO is 76.69bn USD
FORECASTED GDP LOSS IN U.S. IN A GLOBAL PANDEMIC SCENARIO is -2.4%. IMPACT ON TRAVEL & TOURISM
Projected global tourism revenue in 2020, 568.58bn USD. Projected tourism revenue in Asia in 2020 is 164.7m USD.
Loss in global business travel revenue due to COVID-19 is -810.7bn USD
IMPACT ON OIL
Price per barrel of Brent crude oil, as of April 14, 2020 is 29.6 USD. Forecasted demand for oil in Q2 2020 is 101.78 million barrels per day. Projected change in global oil demand in Q2 2020 is -0.4%.
In addition, the main nature of such crisis means that some sectors may get profit, such as: e-commerce, food retail, and the healthcare sector – providing at least some economic growth to offset the damage. Finally, there is the fact that the crisis may have a clear end date when all restrictions on movement can be lifted (for example, when a vaccine is developed).